The UK Has Left the Building…
Yesterday, Thursday 23rd June, 2016, will go down in history as the day the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union by means of a national referendum. The vote was close, 52%-48%, but in this kind of nose-count vote, the majority wins no matter how small the margin. The UK is not the only country to have left the EU–Greenland left the EEC (the European Economic Community, the precursor to the EU) in 1985. But, no disrespect to Greenland, that was hardly as momentous as a major economic power such as the UK leaving.
Why is this so dramatic and historic? Here are some consequences as I see it:
- Scotland overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU. With the UK now leaving, Scotland may have another referendum on leaving the UK so they can join the EU as an independent nation.
- Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU. Southern Ireland, already an independent EU member, might renew their campaign for reunification with the North. I suspect the issues that separate the two halves of Ireland run too deep for this to be seriously viable, but it’s possible. Certainly, the border between the two countries will become very interesting, since it’ll now be between an EU-member country, and an independent country.
- Experts suggest it will take up to two years for Britain to fully disentangle itself from the EU. It’s been a member for over 40 years, so there will be lots of discussion and negotiation. This could be the most messy divorce the world has seen. Or it could be smooth and amicable. Time will tell.
- Other EU members with disenchanted citizens might be inspired to hold similar referendums (referenda…?), which could potentially damage, if not destroy, the EU, taking Europe back to the days when it was a continent of independent sovereign countries.
- Britain will now have to re-negotiate its trade agreements with European countries, as well as other countries with whom their relationship has depended on, or has been affected by, their European membership.
The vote was very close, so it will be interesting to see how things actually pan out. Almost half the country disagreed with the decision, not to mention half of the governing party, so it would seem advisable that the British government act carefully to make sure the UK’s exit is done in the best way for the country, paying due respect to those that dissented.
In all honesty, I didn’t expect this result. I thought the Brits would feel they are so entrenched in Europe and European affairs that it would be more trouble than it’s worth to leave. But the British people have spoken. And now the world watches…
UPDATE: Friday morning, British Prime Minister David Cameron announced his resignation. Cameron was a lead campaigner for the “Remain” side, and he felt that since the country voted to go in a different direction, he is not the person to lead the country in the months and years ahead. For those who don’t understand British politics, this doesn’t mean there’ll be another general election for Prime Minister. When Brits vote for leadership, they vote according to party. Whoever is the leader of the party with the most votes becomes Prime Minister. So what Cameron is calling for is his party, the Conservative party, to choose a new leader. He has recommended the new leader take office by the next party conference in October, so for the next few months, he will stay on and try to bring stability in the wake of this decision. I daresay the party will select a leader from among the many Conservative Members of Parliament (MPs) who voted to leave the EU. As well as being Prime Minister, Cameron is also MP for the district of Witney in Oxfordshire. When he steps down, he will, more than likely, continue in that role, so he will still sit in parliament to represent his constituency. Any questions? 🙂
I will be interested to see how this all shakes out. It seems the shape of Europe has remained in constant flux since the beginning of time. This is a decidedly a non-apocalyptic event. The end comes, according to most prophecies, when the whole world bows under one flag so maybe this forestalls the end of times. Sorry, been writing a lot this week and I do write post-apocalyptic fantasy so always on the look for startling revelations. I don’t think this is one of them. There may be a bit of turmoil. Perhaps not. And I think you are right. I think it may mark the beginning of the end of the EU. Time will tell.
I know from talking with family and what I’ve read that there was a lot of fear-mongering with both campaigns leading up to this vote, and I wonder if a lot of the scary scenarios being envisioned now, the day after, are largely founded upon the apocalyptic predictions thrown around during the campaign, not so much on fact. No-one really knows how this will play out. It all depends on so many factors, not least of which is the kind of graceful exit the next Prime Minister manages to negotiate.
I left the UK 24 years ago, so I speak as an outsider. Clearly this is a lot more visceral for the Brits who have to live with the decision, and what I think really doesn’t amount to anything. Whether or not I think it’s the right decision doesn’t matter–I didn’t vote. But it is undeniably a significant move, and there will be fallout for good and bad.
“…and now the world watches,” indeed. And, what a crazy world it is.
These are interesting times. I understand how unsettling this is for many, but you can’t ignore the historic weight of the moment, and how fascinating it is to be alive as it happens. Reading Twitter, I think one thing a lot of Brits need to do right now is sit down, have a cup of tea, maybe some Hobnobs, and do some reading. Perhaps look at what the politicians are saying. Read both sides of the political and social commentary. Understand how this vote *really* affects you. Nothing’s going to change for a while. But the best antidote to hysteria is information, not speculation.
“The best antidote to hysteria is information, not speculation” – so well said. Tweet it, make it a sub-header. Regardless of how bad or good something is, with accurate information, any situation can be dealt with rationally. Going off hysteria does no one any good. However, it is fun to play with in fiction. In the real world, it is less fun – much gnashing of teeth and breaking of dishes, bones, and Western civilization. Not fun at all.
Tea is the right answer for the now. I have a lovely orange ginger mint tea from the East India company I would be happy to share with any distraught Brits. It all washes out in the end. I can’t pretend to know all the nuances of the vote. I lived in Britain pre-EU and it was lovely. No one was eating children although the Irish were making everyone nervous at the time. There’s always something. The UK will survive regardless. It always does.
I don’t go much for flavored teas, but tea is usually the way Brits deal with a crisis. Now seems like a good time for a nice warm cuppa. Maybe some Jammie Dodgers to go with it. 🙂
Utterly unbelievable. The very fact that this referendum happened in the first place was so that the Tories could try to get the UKIP vote at the last election (interesting note: The Conservatives led by Cameron lasted just over a year before he had to step down. During that year they made around 52 policy U-Turns because of pressure from the opposition and the House of Lords… almost one a week. This is a fantastically unpopular Government!). This referendum was never a serious question about the EU, but political maneuvering within the Conservative party, as I see it.
The farm was wagered on a coin toss and we have all lost because of it.
Interesting statistic: The majority of those who voted to leave were the 60+ age range, the ones who will have less time to live with the consequence of their actions. And still around 10 million people didn’t vote.
There is a HUGE lesson here for the U.S. Vote, for goodness sake vote because the unbelievable can happen.
I need a cup of tea before I plan my move to Australia!
I was watching the BBC coverage, and they did show some young people in favor of leaving. There has always been an element of Euro-skepticism in the UK, ever since the early 70s, so I’m not surprised there was a lot of support for the “leave” vote. I also know there was a lot of scare-mongering on the “stay” side which a lot of people might have found off-putting (which I don’t condone as a good reason to vote, btw.)
That’s an interesting statistic about the 60+ demographic, though I’m sure not all of the 12 or 13 million who voted to leave were over 60. And, as one who is 7 years closer to that age group than you, don’t be so dismissive of them! Perhaps the older generation appreciated the importance of the vote more than the younger folks, which goes to your point about voting.
In all honesty, I question the propriety of these kinds of referendum votes. Isn’t the point of representative government the fact that we, the people, don’t have the time and resources to grasp all the facts and nuances of an issue, so we elect people into office who do the work, make their case, and make decisions? If we don’t like their decisions, we vote them out at the next election.
It seems to me both the Conservatives and Labour have leadership issues. Neither side was able to convince enough of their own to follow them. That sounds like a big leadership fail to me for both of them. (By the way, it always makes me smile when people call governments that were elected into office by a majority of the people “unpopular”–especially when they’ve only been in office for a year. 😉 ).
As I’ve said above, my opinions don’t mean much since I haven’t been living this for the past few months, and I didn’t get a vote. But I would caution against over-reaction. Britain was a great nation for over 1,000 years prior to joining the EU. It’ll take a lot of work to move forward from here, and a lot of that work will be trying to unite the country again. But as long as you all drink tea, chill out, and work with the situation as it is, I don’t see why it has to be a disaster. I’m sure no-one, Conservative, Labour, UKIP, Lib-Dem, Green, whoever, wants the country to fail. It’s not the end of the world. Trust me, you’ll know when that happens. I’ve read the Book. 🙂
I follow someone in England who was very vocal about it, but I didn’t pay too much attention. I see Twitter is in a tizzy about it, forecasting doom and gloom. In all reality, I expect it will be a bumpy road, but the country will end up fine as a whole.
Sure, there’s plenty to be concerned about. After 41 years of European entanglement, it’ll take some time, work, and politicking to work this all out. No-one knows how this will end up, and forecasting doom and running off to Canada won’t solve anything. I’m sure plenty of people in this country will feel the same way in November whoever gets elected.
As we don’t have a one person-one-vote system, no the majority did not vote this Government in, it was the majority of the minority.
The Labour leadership is being questioned by the PLP (Parlimentary Labour Party) but, and this is a biggie…Thousands of people joined the Labour party to vote Jeremy Corbyn into the leadership position, against the wishes of the PLP who wanted some slick Tony Blair-clone (apparently it’s better to be ‘electable’ than trustworthy or principled), so if he is voted out then the Labour party stands to lose all of those members and the goodwill that they have gained in the last 12 months.
What worries me is that whilst the Remain camp did use some scaremongering tactics (but were they? How more scary can ‘We don’t know what will happen, but here’s what our best guess for your entire future’ be?), the Leave camp outright lied. They made a claim, written large on the side of buses in London that the EU cost the UK £350 million a year and if we leave then that money could be spent on the NHS. Now, not only is that figure wrong, as it doesn’t take into account the millions in subsidies that the UK gained from being part of the EU, but by 10am yesterday that ‘promise’ had already been retracted live on national TV. According to Nigel Farage the Leave campaign shouldn’t have said that because they couldn’t promise it would happen.
The leave camp used all the dirty tricks in the book and it worked. Their hate-filled xenophobia may even have led to the brutal murder of Jo Cox, Labour MP for Batley, last week.
As you can tell, I’m still angry about this. I don’t believe a decision this huge should ever have been put into the hands of the people. We’re not talking about elected representatives who we can vote out in four years. We may never get back into the EU now and the domino effect of this across Europe could be catastrophic. Scotland is almost certainly going to table a second independence referendum, Ireland may reunify and leave the UK. In one night England may be more isolated and alone than it has been in centuries. I cannot believe that every person who voted could really have comprehended exactly what the EU was and how wide ranges the effect of leaving it could be. I certainly don’t and I did research before I voted!
A couple of things. It was one-person-one-vote that gave you Brexit. One of the reasons we have an Electoral Collage system in this country is because sometimes the people make stupid choices. The EC acts as a buffer to protect the country from itself. People often protest, saying it’s unfair, but this November might be where the system gets tested. 🙂
From what I hear, no-one presented “just the facts.” It was the facts couched in “that’s why you have to vote X” language. “We currently get x from the EU, so if we leave, this is the doom and gloom that will come from not having x.” That kind of thing is not just presenting the facts. And I’m sure both sides were guilty of it.
I saw the interview with Farage where he backed out of the NHS money claim. Was his original claim that the £350 million a year *would* be spent on the NHS, or *could*? Because it certainly could, but he’s in no position to make any promises. That would be foolish, and if he did promise that money would go to the NHS, more fool him! His “victory” speech was very intemperate and downright insulting to those who voted to remain. He could work for the Trump campaign… 🙂
I think you might be in danger of insulting the majority of your fellow countrymen if you’re suggesting they were hoodwinked into voting to leave based on “dirty tricks.” There’s a lot more going on here than people being persuaded by information, or misinformation, however you look at it. Ultimately, it seems that Brexit hit a nerve. There *is* an underlying xenophobia in the UK, and there has been ever since the days of Enoch Powell. And there has always been an element of Euro-skepticism. You don’t scare people into believing something they aren’t already persuaded to believe to begin with. And that should be the thing that troubles people the most. That’s one of the things that people are trying to get to grips with over here: How can Donald Trump be so popular given the things he has said which are so obviously incorrect, racist, misogynist, etc.? It’s not because people are stupid. Rather, it seems to go to an underlying feeling of “we’ve had enough!” The same sort of exasperation can be found in Bernie Sanders’ supporters. His popularity took a lot of people by surprise, especially since his positions are so far left of even Hillary Clinton. While Sanders and Trump are ideologically miles apart, their support base come from the same “fed up” feelings. Should any important vote like Brexit or a US President be based on feelings? I don’t think so. But that’s what I suspect is going on here.
“I cannot believe that every person who voted could really have comprehended exactly what the EU was and how wide rang[ing] the effect of leaving it could be.” And maybe that was “Remain”‘s biggest mistake: not adequately conveying this to the British people. Maybe they never could, which, to your point, is perhaps why the British people shouldn’t have been allowed to vote on this. One of the irony’s here is that had Cameron been allowed to make the call, you’d be a happier person today. 🙂 Seriously, though, that should be a point of consideration. This wasn’t a vote on party lines. There were sections of each party on both sides of this issue. That should be a foundation for putting party politics to the side and working together to stabilize the country and forging ahead.
As I said before, no-one in the UK wants to see the country fail, so like it or not, I hope the politicians will pull together and make this work for the best.
It’s been a very, very grim week. I really hope things improve here soon, I know a lot of people who are struggling.
I can only imagine what a shock this was for you and your fellow Scots. Heck, it seems half of those who voted to leave are in shock too! Call me an optimist, but I think you’ll spring back. Brits have a knack for rolling with situations, and making the most of what’s before them. Yes, it’ll be tough for a while, and there’s no getting around that. But, as I said above, I don’t believe anyone wants to see the UK destroyed over this. I pray for cool heads, and wise leadership. 🙂
I’m late for the bus. Has it left already? 🙂
This was an interesting turn of events. I only skimmed the comments so if I repeat something, you know why. On the reporting this side of the pond, as you know, media says the vote was driven by the fact many Brits didn’t care for a collective in Brussels deciding the fate of their country. It smells eerily familiar to our own “revolution,” and, as some ALSO said, “it’s Britain’s Independence Day.” I know about 50% (or 48% to be more accurate) dont’ agree. That makes it hard, but, like your optimism, I think things will be fine.
To this, “their support base come from the same “fed up” feelings.” There is a lot of anger, and a lot of “fed up” folks for sure. It’s going to get wild come November 7th. (as if it isn’t already)
I think the BIG lesson both countries should be learning from this is that we BOTH have issues. Deep issues. With government and with our society. If you look at the issues raised by the “leavers” in the UK: sovereignty, immigration, national identity, for example. Don’t we see those same issues over here? Immigration is obvious. But how much power over our lives should the Federal government have? That speaks to State and individual sovereignty. Is America still great, or have we lost prestige? And should we care? Both our current political cycle in the US, and this Brexit vote in the UK should be a wake-up call that these are not fringe issues. People clearly care deeply about these things. And maybe other Western countries should do some soul-searching too, lest they find themselves in a similar crisis not too long from now!
[End of Sermon] 🙂
You’re preaching to the choir, so it’s all good!
I was curious to get your take on Brexit, Colin. I only know one other Brit who lives here in America, and he doesn’t blog. And you delivered! With your post and the following comments, this has been an interesting exchange. Ironic how close this came to one of the blogs at the Reef where Janet talked about do-overs. From what I’m hearing, more than a few people are learning a lot more about Brexit after the election than they understood before.
Time, indeed, will tell. A lot. (I tried to type a lot as one word, but wordpress wants me to be correct. I wonder if there were an autocorrect on ballots if Brexit might have lost?)
Over a week later, here’s the sense of things at least from my perspective. A do-over isn’t going to happen. The vote was “advisory,” but the people have spoken. And while a number of those people didn’t think the majority would actually vote to leave the EU, that doesn’t mean the anti-EU sentiment wasn’t real. When we see the large protests in London, we need to remember that the majority of Londoners voted to stay. I doubt you’ll see similar protests in other parts of the country. So, while a “do-over” might elicit a different result, I don’t think it would solve the problems that have come to light as a result of the referendum.
I fully expect there will be a Brexit. I don’t think Cameron will be allowed to let his successor invoke article 50. He’ll be forced to do it by the EU in the next few weeks. The longer this drags on, the worse it is for the EU, since it creates uncertainty not only in the continental economy, but also among current member countries whose citizens are rethinking their own EU involvement.
And I’m still confident the Brits will make this work, once they can get over the shock, and the “leavers” can move beyond anger. As I noted above to my brother, one of the interesting things about this referendum is that there were people from all political parties on both sides of this issue. Indeed, the leaders of BOTH major parties, the Conservatives and Labour, supported the “Remain” campaign. So there’s common political ground here that should be exploited for the good of the country.